The causal impact of smoking on cancer is: P(cancer|do(smoking)) = P(cancer|do(tar)) * P(tar|do(smoking)) + P(cancer|do(no tar)) * P(no tar|do(smoking)) ######Math Alert######################## Since no backdoor between smoking and tar: P(tar|do(smoking)) = P(tar|smoking) & P(no tar|do(smoking)) = P(no Tar|smoking) And from back door adjustment for tar and cancer: P(cancer|do(tar)) = P(cancer|tar,smoking) * P(smoking) + P(cancer|tar,no smoking) * P(no smoking) & P(cancer|do(no tar)) = P(cancer|no tar,smoking) * P(smoking) + P(cancer|no tar,no smoking) * P(no smoking) Finally, P(cancer|do(smoking)) = (P(cancer|tar,smoking) * P(smoking) + P(cancer|tar,no smoking) * P(no smoking)) * P(tar|smoking) + (P(cancer|no tar,smoking) * P(smoking) + P(cancer|no tar,no smoking) * P(no smoking)) * P(no tar|smoking)